Small Business Closure Scenarios
Small Business Labs
APRIL 7, 2020
Based on an industry by industry analysis (1), our base case estimate is 21% of U.S. employer small businesses will close in 2020 (2) (3). This is about 1.2 million small businesses. In our optimistic case, 14% close and in our pessimistic case, 34% close. The table below (click to enlarge) shows the scenario data. The scenarios are briefly described in note (4) below. By way of comparison, the SBA chart below shows small business closure a
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